All_talk wrote:206er wrote:
whats worse, is that we are RAPIDLY approaching whats known as peak oil. in other words oil production for a given supply can be described by a bell curve, and we are nearing the peak of that curve for world oil. best estimates are 2008-2011. after that, the supply will begin to decrease while worldwide demand keeps increasing. the economy is basically fucked. and btw this is not a hoax or conspiracy theory.
stuff like biodiesel and kinetic energy is hopefully what will save us.
Not to be argumentative, but this “Peek Oil” biz is bunk, it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of economics and existing technologies. Now I’m not saying oil production wont reach a peek then decline, it certainly will, though I don’t think we will see it by 2011 as we haven’t even used 50% of the know reserves. But the part about the economy being fucked is a bit simplistic at best, its not like the oil is going to dry up overnight, as the supply goes down the cost will go up. There are other current technologies and near future ones that will transition, the real factor is cost, right now oil is cheaper, and by a good margin, when the cost equates with other options they will gain favor. This changeover may lag consumer need and that may cause some pain (mostly in the pocket book). The challenge here (without addressing the political/big business roadblocks) is to identify the near and far transitional technologies and work to have them ready, including production and distribution plans. The bottom line is that the economy will adapt, as will we, some of our now common habits may prove to cost prohibitive in the future… things change.
Something to keep in mind here is that all of this, hybrids, fuel cells, even the internal combustion engine are intermediate, there are two things that will bring us to a sustainable energy state... efficiency, using less energy to do that same work, and getting that energy from truly renewable sources. I think that someday we will have to go directly to the source… the sun.
And as to why we haven’t see diesel Hybrids yet… it’s a mater of marketability, diesel has a bad rap in the US with the environmental types that would by a hybrid, why build a car that nobody will by. But Europe doesn’t share the same misguided view, diesel hybrids will likely prove themselves there and we will take interest when they are getting 100+mpg.
Gary
I guess my other post was a little simplistic and made it sound like I thought biodiesel and hybrids were the final solution, no way. I agree that they are merely a transitional solution to something like cold fusion(ha ha). although biofuels technically are a form of solar energy.
kinetic energy should be around for a while though, and I wouldnt be surprised to see it really take off. definitely not a complete solution, but there wont be ONE complete solution, more like a bunch of smaller ones.
one of the greatest things about biodiesel is how easily it can be integrated into the current infrastructure. I know WA is really pulling for it.
the first 50% of the oil is the easiest and cheapest to extract. why do you think they are looking at oil shale in CO and already mining tar sands up in canadia? the costs of a barrel are just going to skyrocket when the cost of extracting it and refning it skyrocket. not to mention that the worlds population and oil demand is not exactly shrinking. look at what is happening as china is trying to catch up to our levels of materialism.
peak oil is not bunk. it has been predicted accurately time and time again by the geophysicists, and micheal simmons is convinced thatt drastic consequences are ahead if we dont get our act together yesterday, and he is one to pay attention to. look at just how much our society revolves around fuel! at any rate, there is no way the economy can avoid taking a hit. which I guess you agree with, though I wouldnt poo poo it as a little hit to the consumer pocket book. and I dont think micheal simmons has a "fundamental misunderstanding" of economics, especially as they pertain to energy, nor do I. I know what technology is out there, and I read the newspaper sometimes.
I fully agree with everything else you said though.
